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The results of the model show that the coefficient for a host's diplomatic recognition of Taiwan is negative and statistically significant. This finding is consistent with the claim that China seeks to leverage FDI to pressure governments to break diplomatic recognition of Taiwan Zhu Indeed, countries that maintained diplomatic relations with Taiwan received none to little FDI compared to other countries that had no diplomatic relations. Moreover, in those countries that stopped diplomatic relations with Taiwan during the study period for example, Chad, Costa Rica, and Senegal , analysis of the data suggested that average inflows of Chinese FDI increased in the period after each country ended diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
The model does not suggest that internal political conditions in the host country have an impact on Chinese FDI flows. The coefficient for revolutionary wars and antistate violence is not statistically significant. Likewise, other domestic political factors seem to have little effect. This suggests that Chinese firms are not clearly affected by rights conditions in the recipient. Unfortunately, these data are not available for Chinese FDI at the present time.
Although Chinese firms entered the region only recently, the statistical findings suggest that there is consistency, on average, in the overtime flow of Chinese FDI across countries in these two regions. The findings of the study support scholarship that has emphasized a state-centered perspective on Chinese FDI decisions. The effects of natural resources in the model, as measured by FDI in host countries with proven reserves of oil, and ores and metals, suggest that the Chinese state continues to guide FDI in to meet China's energy security and natural resource needs as well as the more specific interests of state-owned and private firms.
Of course, as China's industrialization deepens and its per capita income increases, there may be a shift in the composition of domestic consumption, with attendant consequences for Chinese demand for natural resources and the state's outward FDI strategy. Certainly, future research should assess whether Chinese multinational firms change their strategy as the country's rapid economic development continues.
The study also found that FDI concentrates in markets with lower per capita income, while trade has a strong effect on FDI. As noted in the case study literature, the results for trade point to the guidance of the Chinese state on firms to use trade as a precursor to FDI in foreign markets.
Consistent with studies on Chinese sovereign debt purchases, the findings of this study also support the claim that China may use FDI as a lever with states that recognize Taiwan Erickson and Chen ; Renard ; Zhu During the period in question, there was a significant and negative association between FDI flows and states that recognized Taiwan. Moreover, states that broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan during the study period enjoyed an increase in FDI flows in the years that followed the end of diplomatic relations.
Beyond promoting trade and securing adequate supplies of energy and natural resources, then, Chinese FDI in Africa and Latin America would appear to be guided by clear foreign policy objectives. Future researchers examining China's investment flows would be well served to see whether the foreign policy goals isolated in this study are present in Chinese FDI flows to other regions as well. More broadly, the findings of this study also highlight some of the similarities and differences between Chinese firms and enterprises in advanced economies, including the United States, where firms tend to operate with no state guidance.
The results 26 of this analysis suggested that there are some key differences in the FDI behavior of US and Chinese firms. However, in a separate trial see note 23 , we found that rule of law in recipients had no effect on Chinese FDI. Second, in this sample, US firms were more likely to be attracted to wealthier markets Tuman and Emmert Nevertheless, as noted previously, we found the opposite effect for market wealth, as measured by the log of real GDP per capita, in the Chinese FDI model.
At the same time, some natural resources appear to be important determinants for both Chinese and US firms. Moreover, as noted previously, if Chinese FDI in certain markets substitutes for trade with US firms, Chinese investment flows raise the possibility of increased economic competition with the United States. We remain hopeful that future researchers will investigate further some of the underlying reasons for the contrast and similarity in the factors associated with Chinese and US FDI in Latin America, Africa, and other developing areas.
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Figures calculated with data from the National Bureau of Statistics various years. Nevertheless, the effects of Chinese FDI in the region may generate increased competition with US firms through trade substitution. More recently, Gonzalez-Vicente explores some policy factors in a qualitative study.
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For this reason, there are more vertical ties among bureaucrats and managers in China in comparison with the pattern extant in Japan So — However, moving forward, Chinese firms may be motivated to invest in developing-country markets in order to acquire new technology and managerial skills, which can be transferred back to China Dussel Peters Very recent Chinese involvement in aerospace or manufacturing in some Latin American or African markets, including Brazil, South Africa, or Mexico, may reflect this goal and be suggestive of future trends in FDI.
If true, then Chinese firms may ignore political risk in the host market. Because their study focused on US and worldwide FDI flows, it is unclear whether their findings may be generalized to multinational firms that are based in emerging economies, including China. This technique is also used for all other covariates that are logged and for which there are zero or negative values for example, proven oil reserves. The pooled autocorrelation parameter, rho, is 0. Linear mixed regression random intercept at the country level, via maximum-likelihood estimation; see Beck and Katz produced results that are consistent with OLS.
We retain the OLS approach with three unit effects, as discussed in the main text for ease of interpretation. We repeated the analysis with observations for only Africa or Latin America and obtained the same result. Likewise, estimation of the equation without the variable with the highest VIF produces results that are completely consistent with Table 1. The sector was already mature following several decades of US, German, and Japanese FDI in the terminal industry, and the formation of Mexican firms in specialized segments which developed under older import-substitution regulations; see Tuman This lends support to the interpretation that FDI is associated with extraction of oil resources from the host countries for export to China.
Staats and Biglaiser and Blanco note the importance of the rule of law in developing regions. All covariates were lagged by 1 year; they included the natural log of US trade with recipients, natural log of real GDP per capita constant thousands of dollars , proven oil reserves the natural log of billions of barrels of proven reserves , ore and metal exports, the natural log of the consumer price index CPI, base year , human rights abuse, and rule of law in each recipient.
The data sources for each independent variable are the same as those listed in the Data and Methods section, and in note The model was estimated with linear regression, panel-corrected standard errors, and a lagged dependent variable. Unit effects were included based on the analysis of summed residuals and residual variance ratios.
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